I am dreaming that Jürgen Trittin, the Green politician from Germany, would not have spoken about the cost of a scoop of ice cream in 2004, which the consumer household has to pay more per month for the energy transition, because he would not have become Federal Environment Minister in 1998. The nuclear phase-out would not have been implemented as it was initially decided by the red-green government in 2000; Angela Merkel would NOT have become Chancellor in the alternative reality.
The alternative Chancellor (whoever) would not have hysterically accelerated the initially suspended nuclear phase-out due to the Fukushima disaster. Accordingly, the costs for the energy transition, estimated at 520 billion euros so far, financed by the German population and industry, would have been distributed differently. Not all of the money would have gone to wind and solar energy, but also to grid renewal and further expansion of nuclear energy. The Germans would live in an energy land of milk and honey today.
Is it all just science fiction?
Germany’s current energy policy continues to follow the motto “Wash me, but don’t get me wet!”. Liquid gas is bought in the USA and elsewhere, delivered over long distances with high CO2 emissions, instead of being produced more cheaply in Germany. We shut down 37 nuclear reactors, which supplied around 300 TWh of electricity per year. Germany’s annual consumption is currently (2022) 484.2 TWh. For half of the 520 billion euros, i.e., 260 billion euros, it would have been possible to build 21 more nuclear power plants, which, had they been started in 2000, would have been completed long ago. Another 21 nuclear power plants would then have produced around 190 TWh of low-CO2 electricity annually. The rest could have been invested in renewables to achieve an almost 100 percent shift away from fossil fuels in energy generation by 2020 at the latest.
Electric cars, hydrogen & heat pumps
The effect would have been an electricity price more than competitive in international competition, with a kWh price of less than 20 cents and a resulting industrial electricity price of less than 8 cents per kWh. The “gas crisis” initiated by Russia would have passed Germany without a trace. What would result from this?
Electromobility
No sane person would want to continue driving a combustion engine if 100 km cost more than 10 euros in fuel – and the trend is rising. Even an Audi Q8 e-tron, an energy guzzler that consumes well over 25 kWh per 100 kilometers, would only be half as expensive at 5 euros. An economical mini-electric car with 15 kWh consumption would only cost 3 euros per 100 kilometers.
Hydrogen
With low electricity prices, the cost of producing green hydrogen would be halved in one sitting, and volatile energy suppliers such as wind turbines and solar could produce hydrogen in the event of overcapacity – even nuclear power plants could feed large amounts of electricity into the electrolyzers instead of having to be regulated down. E-fuels would become cheaper (suitable for the installed combustion base and other means of transportation that still have to run on fossil fuels). Still, heavy industry, which would emit less CO2 with green hydrogen, would also contribute to climate improvement.
Heat pumps
Heating with heat pumps is only clever for modern buildings that are appropriately insulated and designed for this purpose. The situation is different for older buildings. The cost of electricity consumption is far higher than the cost of natural gas. However, heat pumps are also popular in Norway and other Scandinavian countries – partly because of the low price of electricity. Between 20:00 and 21:00, the price in Norway is just 10 cents/kWh. In any case, using a heat pump is cheaper. The same applies here: if the price of electricity were more affordable in Germany, consumers would switch to this type of heating of their own accord without being forced to do so. Dependence on gas supplies would quickly disappear. As demand determines the price, gas prices would also fall. In addition, the waste heat from nuclear power plants could be used for district heating networks.
Industry
Industry would only be able to stay in the country due to rising costs. On the contrary, with an internationally comparable industrial electricity price, the German electricity-intensive industry would hardly think about relocating thanks to highly trained specialists. Good for tax revenues and suitable for employment. The battery industry would flourish in Germany because of the excellent framework conditions.
The radio alarm clock rings.
I wake up, pumped full of happiness hormones. I hear the day’s early news. I hear the measures of a government that is just “reacting” haphazardly and plugging one hole after another like a sinking ship while new holes appear. The incoming water is scooped from left to right but not from the boat. And then I arrived back in reality. How naive of me.
It was all just a dream.
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