Researchers at the University of Oxford have discovered a fascinating link between UK weather conditions and music preferences. After analysing over 23,000 chart-topping songs from the past 70 years, the study found that danceable, positive-emotion tunes were positively associated with warmer temperatures and negatively associated with rainfall. Energetic, positive music increased in summer and decreased in winter, while hyper-popular songs in the top 10 charts had the strongest weather associations. Dr Manuel Anglada-Tort, the lead researcher, suggests that favourable environmental conditions, such as warm and sunny weather, induce positive emotional states in listeners, influencing their music choices.
Capitalising on summer vibes: the music industry and weather
Interestingly, many artists and music industry professionals seem to have been aware of this weather-music connection for some time, attempting to capitalise on it by releasing songs with a “summer vibe” during the warmer months. Songs such as “Summer” by Calvin Harris, “Summertime Sadness” by Lana Del Rey vs Cedric Gervais, and “Summer Nights” by John Travolta & Olivia Newton John have all been successful summer releases. This strategy highlights the industry’s awareness of the link between the weather and the popularity of certain types of music.
However, the Oxford study is the first to provide scientific evidence of this relationship in the UK. The researchers analysed historical weather data from the Met Office and Official Charts, measuring daily temperature, daily hours of sunshine, and days of rain. By using machine learning techniques, they were able to determine each song’s musical features such as melody, harmony, rhythm, timbre, dynamics, and tempo. The study found that energetic and positive songs performed better during warm and sunny weather compared to rainy and cold months.
Not all emotions are weather-related
While the study highlights the connection between positive, energetic music and warmer weather, it also reveals that songs with low intensity and negative emotions, such as sadness, are not influenced by the weather at all. Dr Anglada-Tort explains that “negative emotional states may be more influenced by individual situational factors rather than general environmental conditions”.
Although the study has established a correlation between music chart success and weather conditions, it does not prove causation. Dr Anglada-Tort warns that the results must be interpreted with caution, as alternative explanations may account for their findings, such as the role of industry gatekeepers or recommender systems that decide which music is available to consumers.
Implications and future research
The findings of this study not only provide valuable insights into the relationship between weather and music preferences but also reveal the importance of considering broad environmental factors when analysing the success of songs in the music market. This information could potentially be used by artists and industry professionals to plan release dates and promotional strategies that take advantage of favourable weather conditions to boost the success of their music.
Future research could explore similar links between weather and music preferences in countries with different climate patterns. While no such studies have been conducted yet, it would be interesting to see if the results align with the findings of the UK-based study.
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