German state elections are in full swing. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany, AfD) party made significant gains in Saxony and Thuringia. Elections in Brandenburg will follow on Sept. 22. The shift to the far right affects local politics in these states, but perhaps beyond.
Elections in East Germany
In September, elections are held in the German states of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg. Unlike the Dutch provinces, the German states each have their own government and parliament, and determine their own policies in many areas. In addition, the states play a role in national government policy through the Federal Council, which is similar to the Dutch Senate.
“In any case, the result does not come as a surprise,” said Marja Verburg, a historian and editor of Germanyweb. The AfD was founded in 2013, as a kind of anti-euro party. For the first few years, the party wasn’t popular. In Germany, parties must meet a 5% electoral threshold to enter parliament. In the summer of 2015, they were at 3% in the polls. But then came the refugee crisis. “The AfD has been an integral part of the German political landscape ever since. First particularly in East Germany, but now it is also gaining a foothold in the West,” said Verburg.
Impact on local climate and innovation policy
The AfD is not only known for its anti-immigration policies. The party is also making its mark on the climate debate. For example, climate spokesman Karsten Hilse said earlier that his party “denies the influence humans have on the climate.”
When it comes to innovation, the party has taken a protectionist stance, for example when it comes to labor from abroad. While the industry currently needs new workers. “There are many international companies in East Germany,” Verburg knows. “Think of Tesla in Brandenburg or chip manufacturer TSMC from Taiwan, which is going to build a factory in Dresden. These companies have invested in large factories there, partly because there is cheap land there. You can assume that the governments that are now coming to Saxony and Thuringia will do everything they can to keep those companies. But they do fear that investors will drop out now that the far right is coming to power, especially the startups.” So industry in these states is at a loss. In Thuringia, the AfD has gained enough votes (at 32.8%, it is the largest party) to get in the way when it comes to innovation plans.
A group of German family businesses launched the “Made in Germany – made by Vielfalt” campaign for more diversity, pluralism, and an open society several years ago. After all, business also benefits from this. Björn Höcke, the right-wing AfD leader in Thuringia, reacted to the campaign just before the elections. He wished these companies economic problems. But since Höcke’s statements, on the contrary, many more companies have joined the campaign.
The business community in Germany is concerned. The CEO of a company in Thuringia, Maximator Hydrogen, which is developing hydrogen refueling stations, for example, says that the AfD’s critical stance on hydrogen could cause him and his company to leave the state “in the worst case scenario.” “Companies in Thuringia and Saxony are already finding it harder to get international skilled workers. They don’t want to come there because of the increasing influence of the AfD,” Verburg said.
At the local level, the far right is already making its mark. “But it must be strange for the AfD to gain so much influence at the national level that it can make a dent in international policy,” Verburg said.
Pull to the right in Europe
Kornelis Blok, emeritus professor of energy systems analysis at the Delft University of Technology, also has no immediate fear of what the outcome of the state elections means for the climate goals of the Netherlands and Europe. “The most important agreements on climate have been set at the European level for the next few years and what happens in Germany now has no direct influence on that.”
Blok does express concerns about the longer term. “If a far-right party becomes more popular in Germany, there is a risk that other parties will gradually move toward that as well. It is a sliding scale,” he says. This could affect not only migration policy in Germany but also other important issues such as climate. In the long run, this could even spill over into Germany’s national policy. Subsequently, this political shift could also indirectly affect the Netherlands. “After all, neighboring countries look at each other,” he said.
Blok firmly looks ahead to 2030. By then, net emissions in Europe must be reduced by 55%. Also, from 2035, all new cars sold in the European Union are required to be CO2 emission-free. “But at the same time, we are seeing a shift to the far right across Europe. If this trend continues then countries may well dig in their heels in the future when it comes to this kind of green regulation,” he predicts. But it remains pie in the sky. “For now, the climate train is moving on.”
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