What can we expect from COP29?

By Mauro Mereu

The 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) is set to start today in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. From 11 to 22 November, world leaders, decision-makers, and other stakeholders will convene to discuss and decide on new actions to implement against climate change. 

The approaching summit has been aptly termed the ‘Finance COP,’ with a spotlight on setting a new climate finance target. The summit comes at a key moment, as February 2025 marks the deadline for UN members to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These are their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, part of the Paris Agreement’s framework. The outcome of COP discussions could catalyze enhanced climate action across the globe or, conversely, reveal deep fissures in international cooperation on climate change.

Climate finance at the forefront

In Baku, negotiators will discuss a new collective quantified finance goal (NCQG), which has existed for 15 years. In 2009, developed countries agreed to spend $100 billion annually on climate by 2020. The target was not met in 2020 or 2021. As a result, poor countries’ trust has been eroded, which may make COP29 negotiations especially delicate.

The new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance is essential to rebuilding trust and informing the preparation of the next round of NDCs. The figures being proposed for the NCQG by different countries and organizations range from billions to trillions, highlighting the scale of the task and the urgency of reaching a consensus.

Tackling loss and damage

Another critical area of discussion is the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) operationalization, which was set in motion at COP28. The fund was set to “assist developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change,” helping them to respond to loss and damage linked to climate change. 

Despite pledges totaling roughly $700 million, there’s a stark contrast with the estimated $580 billion in climate-related damages that developing countries could face by 2030. This gap underscores the significance of the negotiations that will take place in Baku as countries grapple with the practicalities of scaling up financial support.

Parties will also discuss the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). Article 7 of the 2015 Paris Agreement set targets for boosting adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Particularly, talks will provide feedback on the work of thematic experts who started measuring progress toward GGA. 

Greenery paves the way for climate-adaptive cities

As global mean temperatures keep rising, living in cities feels even warmer. Tall buildings that clog airflow, scarce greenery, and heat-retaining materials such as asphalt can make summer days unbearable.

Energy transition 

Countries committed to “Transitioning away from fossil fuels” during last year’s COP meeting. Parties agreed to phase out coal, triple renewable energy capacity, and double energy efficiency by 2030 while moving away from fossil sources by mid-century. 

The energy transition will also be discussed at COP29, and parties are expected to build upon the agreements reached last year in Dubai. Specifically, they must clarify what transitioning from fossil fuels means in practice. According to experts, this could be done through a cover decision, a decision untied to any agenda item drafted without a mandate. An example is the Glasgow Climate Pact resulting from COP26, which gave countries an overview of the key issues to prioritize. 

Carbon markets

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement will also be discussed. This article also sets a framework for international trading carbon markets, trading systems in which carbon credits are sold and bought. Companies or individuals can use carbon markets to compensate for their GHG emissions by purchasing carbon credits from entities that remove or reduce such environmental outputs. 

During COP28, parties did not reach a deal on this regulation. Baku summit is a moment for negotiators to finalize the operationalization of these rules, including guidance on international emissions trading, to mitigate the ambiguity of article 6. 

COP28 was also about increasing nuclear capacities worldwide

“Transitioning away from fossil fuels” is the key message that resonated throughout the media after the closing of COP28 negotiations in the United Arab Emirates. Countries agreed on a roadmap to phase out coal, oil, and gas. The agreement backers hailed the climate convention as the beginning of the end of fossil fuels.

Expectations and challenges

As per some analysts, the current geopolitical scenario could impact negotiations and international climate cooperation. Given Azerbaijan’s role as a major crude oil and natural gas producer, the presidency and its transparency have been scrutinized. 

Independent scientific project Climate Action Tracker notes how current global commitments place the world on course for a 2.6 to 3.1°C by 2100, potentially double the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. The clock is ticking, and Baku negotiations will have far-reaching implications for the planet’s trajectory toward or away from the previously set climate goals.