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The European Union is set to vote on imposing new import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), which could reshape the automotive landscape. With the Chinese EV market share in Europe surging from 2% in 2020 to over 14%, the EU aims to protect its auto industry. Proposed tariffs range from 7.8% to 35.3%, depending on manufacturers’ level of state support. However, the decision faces opposition from some member states, including Germany, due to concerns about potential retaliation from China and impacts on their industries. The vote, scheduled for today, is a critical moment for EU-China relations and the future of the European automotive sector.

Growing tensions in the auto market

The surge of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) in the European market is a testament to China’s growing influence in the global automotive industry. In 2020, Chinese EVs accounted for a mere 3.5% of global sales. This figure has now skyrocketed to over 27%. Initially resistant to this influx, the European market has seen Chinese brands’ market share expand from 2% to 14% over the same period. The EU’s decision to impose tariffs is not just an economic maneuver but a strategic defense of its local industry.

The proposed tariffs, which vary based on the level of state support received by Chinese manufacturers, could alter the competitive landscape. Tesla, for example, faces a 7.8% tariff for vehicles manufactured in China, while companies like SAIC might see tariffs as high as 35.3%. These tariffs are intended to counteract what the EU perceives as unfair competition. However, the move is fraught with potential repercussions, including retaliation from China. German automakers, heavily invested in the Chinese market, fear that such measures could provoke a trade conflict. As a result, Germany, pressured by its automotive sector, has decided to vote against the tariffs, insiders reveal.

While countries like France, Italy, Greece, and Poland support the tariffs, seeing them as necessary to level the playing field, others remain hesitant. Spain’s Prime Minister, for instance, has expressed concerns due to Spain’s significant pork exports to China. Moreover, Germany’s opposition stems from fears of economic repercussions and its strong trade ties with China.

A strategic decision for the EU and beyond

The investigation into Chinese subsidies, initiated in September 2023, revealed that Beijing’s support extends across the EV supply chain, creating challenges for European manufacturers. Ursula von der Leyen’s call to action emphasized the distortion caused by these subsidies, urging the EU to protect its market from artificially low-priced Chinese EVs. The proposed tariffs are seen not only as a protective measure but also as a reflection of von der Leyen’s broader strategy towards China. The outcome of this vote could significantly impact her administration’s standing and the EU’s future trade policies.

The decision to impose tariffs resonates globally. The United States and Canada have already implemented tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese goods, setting a precedent that the EU might follow with more moderate rates. However, given the larger trade volume between Europe and China, even these ‘lower’ tariffs could have substantial effects on international trade dynamics. The EU’s decision will be closely watched as a barometer of changing global economic policies and the balance of power between global markets.

For European consumers, the introduction of tariffs is likely to lead to increased prices for Chinese EVs, although the exact impact will vary by manufacturer and profit margins. While this move is seen as necessary for protecting the European auto industry, it could be detrimental to consumers seeking affordable EV options.