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We all try our hand at predicting things. But how good are those predictions? The Danish Nobel Prize winner for Physics in 1922, Niels Bohr, spoke these wise words: making predictions is very difficult, especially when it comes to the future. It often goes very wrong: oil price rises from the past were poorly predicted, as were cobalt and lithium price rises nowadays.

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About the author

Author profile picture Jan Wouters is an independent entrepeneur, at Wautomotive.nl. In the year that the car celebrates its 250th anniversary, he writes for Innovation Origins about the history of innovation.